Casual Trick offers encouraging runner-up effort

Horseracing Betting Lines

01/02/2012 - Hallandale Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sunday's $100,000 Gulfstream Park Derby put new names on the Kentucky Derby futures list for this year. The 1 1/16-mile race was the first stakes event of the year for Run for the Roses hopefuls.

Reveron won the race under jockey Fernando Jara after pressing the pace set by Nachas and Joy. Finishing second was Casual Trick who raced third most of the way for trainer Nick Zito.

"He ran very hard but he was fighting me a little bit to pass that horse in the stretch. The winner was more experienced than mine and my horse was still a little green today. He just broke his maiden and was going two turns for the first time," said jockey John Velazquez of Casual Trick's runner-up finish. "I think he's still learning. He actually handled the two turns really well. If he continues to mature and get better, I think he's going to be very good."

The inaugural Gulfstream Park Derby was Casual Trick's third career start. He was fifth at Saratoga back in August and came back two months later to win at Churchill Downs.

"The Gulfstream Park Derby is a two turn race, a mile and a sixteenth. I thought right off the bat to see how good he is. I think he's really, really good," Zito said prior to the running of the race. "Hopefully, his pedigree jumps up. I know it's quick. I'm asking him to do something unusual, but sometimes we do that. These are the horses that take us to the promised land, not us. Hopefully, he can do it."

Casual Trick, a son of 2006 Preakness champ Bernardini, is owned by Robert LaPenta who also owns 2011 Florida Derby winner Dialed In. The four-year-old is back in training at Palm Meadows under the guidance of Zito.

Dialed In, who underwent knee surgery last year, worked three-furlongs Monday morning. The colt was timed in 35 seconds as he prepares for this year's racing season.

Dialed In won the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park last winter along with the Florida Derby. Sent off as the 5-1 favorite in the Kentucky Derby, the colt finished eighth after running last in the 19-horse field. He followed with a fourth-place finish in the Preakness.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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