Discreetly Mine one to beat in Louisiana Derby

Horseracing Betting Lines

03/22/2010 - New Orleans, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Risen Star Stakes winner Discreetly Mine heads a field of 13 three-year-olds for Saturday's $750,000 Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds. Formerly run at 1 1/16-miles, the race is now a 1 1/8-mile prep for the Kentucky Derby.

Last year's race was won by Friesan Fire who was then the post-time Kentucky Derby favorite.

Discreetly Mine will again be ridden by Javier Castellano and the pair will start from post seven. Owned by E. Paul Robsham, Discreetly Mine is the 7-2 morning-line favorite.

The colt won the Risen Star Stakes last month by 1 1/2-lengths over Tempted to Tapit after leading the entire race. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Discreetly Mine has won two of seven career starts for a little less than $360,000.

The 4-1 second choice in the program is A Little Warm who was second in the Hutcheson Stakes last month at Gulfstream Park. The colt will break from post five with David Cohen in the saddle.

Trained by Tony Dutrow for Edward Evans, A Little Warm won the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream in January. He lost the Hutcheson to D' Funnybone by a length. D' Funnybone won last week's Swale Stakes at the Miami track.

A Little Warm has earned $134,280 with two wins in six lifetime starts.

Breaking from the far outside post will be 5-1 third pick Drosselmeyer. The chestnut colt will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux for WinStar Farm and trainer Bill Mott.

Drosselmeyer is coming off a fourth-place finish in the Risen Star as the 2-1 favorite. He was just 1 3/4-lengths behind Discreetly Mine in the February stakes. The favorite in five of six career starts, the colt has two wins and $86,170.

Here is the complete field for the Louisiana Derby in post position order: Hotep, Patrick Husbands; Mission Impazible, Rajiv Maragh; Fly Down, Jose Lezcano; The Program, Martin Garcia; A Little Warm, David Cohen; Ron the Greek, James Graham; Discreetly Mine, Javier Castellano; Island Soul, Robby Albarado; Stay Put, Jamie Theriot; Wow Wow Wow, John Jacinto; Mister Marti Gras, Shaun Bridgmohan; Backtrack, Shane Sellers and Drosselmeyer, Kent Desormeaux.

Post-time for the 97th Louisiana Derby will be 5:50 p.m. (et). All 13 horses will carry 122 pounds.

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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends

We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS.  Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned.  For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go.  As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190).  Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.   By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet.  For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction.  On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later.  Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick.  Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com

New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors

Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
 New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season. 
 
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times. 
 
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons

Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season. 
 
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers

In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS. 
 
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”.  With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit.  Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.

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